Barrons - 09/17/2007 notes - "A Beter Bet Than Apple"

Cover refers to Nokia (NOK) - better margins, products, cheaper, etc. But poor presence in the US contributes to it not being that loved

Health care stocks might be a good value. I already trade options on HNT, but here are a few other possibilities:

• CI - Cigna
• HUM - Humana
• MOH - Molina

Other stocks mentioned

• John Deere (DE, $147) - good corn crop
• Altria (MO, $70) - Int'l spin off sounds good. Will keep a 5%+ yield.

Put selling

• Goldman's people like selling puts on T, JNJ, PEP
• This week, big bull spread on MS - bought 6,000 Jan 65 calls and sold 12,000 Jan 70 calls
  

Speaking of Dividends:

• McDonalds (MCD, $55)
  
• boosted it to about 2.7%
• Paccar (PCAR, $90) -
  
• dividend has grown 20% annually over past 10 years
• stock has split 5x since 1997
• 13 special dividends since mid 1990 (last was $2/share in January)
• Zenith National Insurance (ZNT, $45)
  
• yielding 4.5%, 2nd boost this year
  
• 7th hike in 3.5 years

Where is Oil Headed? Contrarian say $45

• Mike Rothman ISI group
• What happens when hedge funds unwind all at once
• Demand growth is slower than we think
• Saudis can supply a lot more than we think (3 big fields coming online)
• Khursaniyah - Q3 2007
• Nuayyim - 2008
• Khurais - 2009
  

Notes from Labor Day 2007

Catching up on reading this week. Here are some things to check out

www.barrons400.com - Barrons came out w/ an index of 400 stocks they feel should do better than the market

Christopher Wood

• Writes a weekly letter called Greed & Fear, which might not be publically available, but can be found here: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/?s=christopher+wood
• Called the subprime alarm in 2005.
  
• Saw the Nasdaq crest in early 2000.
  
• Currently works for CLSA (HK brokerage).
• Has a booked called "Boom and Bust: The Rise and Fall of World Financial Markets".
  

Bond Insurers might be a good buy. WSJ. People extrapolate (lack of transparency) current bad news really far into the future (similar to RE stocks after Katrina)

• Assured Guaranty (AGO)
• MBIA (MBI)
• Ambac Financial Group (ABK)

Banco Compartamos -

• Mexican bank w/ an ROE of 50%;
  
• Specializes in Microfinance
• Listed on the Mexican exchange. Maybe can be bought on pink sheets.
  

Pasadena (Lexington Heights) home tour - 5/27/07

www.historichighlands.org

6 homes on highland (between michigan and holliston; new york and washington)

ODMAX substitutions

From 8/14/06 Barrons

Substitution for ODMAX

• Opp Real Asset
• Opp Int'l Small Company
• HRTVX

Barrons - 7/24/06

From 7/24/06 Barrons

- Is it time for Large Cap Value (?)

- Monitor the P/E of homebuilders and railroads

- Watch YHOO (20% drop in one day, to $25) in one month (on 5/21/07, price is about $30, so money could be made

- www.instantbull.com (grabs headlines from the following)
- finance.yahoo.com
- ragingbull.com
- siliconinvestor.com

- freemoneyfinance.com (blog)
- diamond hill long-short fund (20% 1 yr)
- insiderscore.com (subscription)

- EGN

• Utility that owns natural gas
• Free call option on Floyd shale (Alabama)
• Authorized 15% buyback
• (on 5/12/07, up 50% - doh!)

Kiplingers 8/06

7/15/06

From 8/06 Kiplingers

www.valueforum.com

Yield stocks

• ald - allied capital
• tma - thornburg mortgage
• tankers
• atb - arlington
• dht - double hull
• gstl - genco shipping
• ssw - seaspan
• oil/gas
• bpt (bp prodhoe - doh!)
• cvx - 3.5%

FPPTX - FPA capital - no losing yr since 1984 (?)

Coal -

• - btu
• - cnx (consol)
• - nrp (natural resource partners)

5/23/06 - Barrons

From 5/08/06 Barrons
- BVN - compania de minas buenaventura (peru au/ag)
- yzc - yanzhou coal

Gold and Barrons

5/6/06 notes

Gold hypothetical example
Today Tomorrow
1 oz gold $250 $500
1 sh CSCO $25 $50

csco in dollar terms - 50/25 = 2X
csco in gld terms - 1/10 oz -> 1/10 oz - 0% gain

if csco were flat, 1/10 oz -> 1/20 oz - 50% loss

if gold rises x%, stocks rise y%, stock appreciation = (1 + y%)/(1 + x%)

so nominal can go up while real goes down

From 4/24/06 Barrons

fxtrade.oanda.com - currency trading
xpresstrade.com - commodity trading

davis ny venture interview

malasia ETF

4/23/06 - notes from 4/15 AAII mtg

- The Undercover Economist (book)
- Dohmen Research/Wellington Letter
- comments on inflation, gold hedge, liquidity?

Robert Hsu recommends
- ctrip.com (ctrp)
- focus media (fmcn)
- the9 (ncty)

Summit
- passive indices w/ rebalancing (dimensional funds)

7 Indicators that Move the Market
- yield curve - short end affected by fed; long end by inflation expectations
- two spreads
- 10 yr bond - fed funds
- AAA bonds - fed funds
- TED - treasury/euro spread
- TAG - treasury agency (i.e. fannie mae)

refining futures

[(2*gasoline + 1*heating oil) - 3*crude/42]* 1/3 = refiner margin/gallon "1-2-3"

margin > $0.04/gallon is good

4/23/06 - notes from AAII subgroup mtg 4/1/06

- www.fidelity.com/runningbulls

- fed funds futures (can be found in barrons)
- smart money thinks probability of interest rate change
- example
- today is 8/3; fed mtg is 8/22
- today = 6.5%; probability of 6.75%?
- today, fed funds futures = 93.49 = 6.51%

- 22/31 * 6.5 + 9/31 * (6.75p + 6.5(1-p)) = 6.51
- therefore, p = 13.64%

- FT dxy-z = $ exchange rate
- vmfxx leads fed funds by a bit ($FEDD)
- pot'l US vs Int'l System based on USD
- junk - 10 yr bond; if spread <> 5%, get into junk

4/9/06 - review of 3/27/06 Barrons

Barrons - 3/27/06

Education stocks - ceco, apol, coco, laur

art smith on energy - ccon, cop, xom, cvx;

refiners - hoc, fto, vlo

best-buy options (?) something about earnings and price drift?

www. quantitativeinvestment.com (haugen) - multifactor models; use of deciles of stocks

4/2/06 - April 2006 Kiplingers

Mutual funds -
- HFCGX - Hennessy cornerstone growth (I & II)
- HENLX
- HFTFX (focus 30)

hsbcdirect.com

chaserewards plus visa (no cap on refunds)

check out AMT clauses

4/2/06 AAII Mtg - Dave Wright Talk Recap

recommended funds
- sgiix - first eagle global value
- nhmax - nuveen high yld munis
- sitex - sei emerging mkt bond
- icdax - ivy cundhill global value
- tbgvx
- rpibx - t rowe int'l bond
- vwinx - vanguard wellesley income
- andex - old mutual analytic - defensive equity
- cnzlx - australia/NZ
- pempx - potomac emerging mkts equity
- bmpix - profunds mat'l
- macsx - matthews asian convertible securities

Jan 03 barrons - read grantham and felix zuloff

3/30/06 Book Review - Beyond the Random Walk

By Singal

1. January Effect
- losers sold in Dec, rise in Jan
- winners are not sold in Dec (little selling pressure)
- how to use - sell losers in Jan; or buy winners in dec, not January (Dec 1 or 5 trading days
before Dec 31)

2. Weekend Effect
- stocks rise on friday, drop on monday (short covering?)

3. Short Term Price Drift
- If Price rises on high volume and good announcement (news), price will drift up for 1 month

4. Momentum in Industry Portfolios (rotational trading)
- holding period of 6-12 months
- lookback period of 5, 15, 25 weeks
- holding period of 1, 5 weeks
- 5 week lookback, 1 week holding is best (test this in trade)

5. Mispricing of mutual funds
- not possible (?) w/ erfs and trading restrictions

6. trading by insiders
- need to make rules i.e.
- 6 month window
- sale/purchase (S/P) ratio - exclude outsiders; > 500k shares, no planned sales
- unique insiders
- compare S/P to SI/PI
- buy if no selling, certain ratios met

7. changes to s&p 500
- added firms go up
- dropped firms go down
- buy on announcement; short on effective date

8. merger arb
- buy target; short acquirer

9. Int'l investing and home country bias
- buy for diversification

10. bias in currency forward rates
- short currencies w/ low int rates
- long currencies w/ high int rates

More MoMo

1. buy stocks that have done best over the past 3-12 months and hold 3-12 months
2. 3-5 years, trends reverse
3. for 1 yr after a stock split, abnormal returns

3/23/06 - additional notes from reading

From 3/6/06 Barrons

- Building infrastructure for energy plays
- flr, fwlt, jec, cbi, sgr

- Website recs
1. etf-connect.com
2. etfdigest.com
3. etftrends.com
4. etf-reader.com
5. assetallocator.blogspot.com
6. pfblogs.org - catalog of blogs
7. happycapitalist.blogspot.com

3/23/06 Notes - 3/18/06 AAII mtg

1. D. Gimpel
- investorhome.com
- 7 indicators that move the market (kasriel & schap)
- predicting the markets of tomorrow (o'shaughnessy

2. theglobeandmail.com - financial section on oil/gas trusts

3. buybacks - buybackletter.com
- ikenberry and lakonjshok paper - "market underreaction to open market share repurchases"

4. fari hamzei
- dollar weighted put/call ratio
- ( sum of cost/put * # puts)/(sum of cost/call * # calls)
- T+3 day effect due to settling requirements

3/23/06 Notes - websites to check out

1. martincapital.com
2. investorsinsight.com
3. randomroger.blogspot.com
4. inventingmoney.blogspot.com
5. seekingalpha.com/article/3033
6. kiplinger.com/tools/stockfinder
7. fundalarm.com
8. investingingbonds.com
9. insure.com, accuquote.com, insweb.com
10. marketcenter.com
11. advfn.com - global quotes
12. ft.com
13. adr.com
14. morningstar.com/centers/global.html
15. footnoted.org

3/20/06 notes - ADRs

Chile -
1. SAN - bank
2. EOC - utility
3. SQM - mining

Columbia -
1. CIB - bank

Brazil -
1. GOL
2. BBD
3. PBR
4. EMB
5. RIO

Russia -
1. Gazprom
2. Lukoil
3. Norilsk (NILSY)

3/7/2006 Notes - O'Shaughnessy book

O'Shaughnessy

1. Market leaders
- large stocks
- market cap > avg
- shares outstanding > avg
- cash flow > avg
- sales > 1.5 * avg stock

2. all stocks value
- p/b < 1.5
- div yld > avg
- p/e < avg
- buy the 50 stocks w/ the lowest price/CF

3. cornerstone growth
- market cap > $200M
- P/S < 1.5
- earnings today > earnings a year ago
- buy 50 w/ greatest price appreciation in past year
- 3 month price appreciation > avg
- 6 month price appreciation > avg

2/6/06 Notes

1/3/06 Barrons
Rubber shortage? (matt simmons, simmons and co); Peak oil?

12/26/06 Barrons
Gold -
- NEM - newmont mining
- GG - gold corp
- FCX - freeport
- rgld - royalgold

- osk - oshkosh truck
- xec - jon wolff, credit suisse

- joyg for mining tools
- tsu - brazil cell phone
- cdis - caldive
- bbd = itu (?) brazillians banks

Index of Recipes I've cut out of the paper (II)

1. Several grilled salmon recipes (SO paper) - cedar plank, pesto planked, ginger soy, cajun, wasabi

2. Grilled shrimp in ginger/lime marinade

3. Eggplant Imam Bayildi (onion, tomato, etc)

WSJ 5/19/07 - Int'l Brokers

To invest directly in foreign markets, see if you can open an account w/ a local broker
- Boom Securities in HK gives Ameicans access to every major market in Asia
- check out each country's stock exchange website first

Barrons 5/14/07 - Interview w/ Michelle Applebaum

Steel analyst
- foreign steel is now being used more in foreign countries (i.e. larger share of domestic pie is going to domestics)
- NUE and STLD contain costs well
- consolidation is good for blast furnace operation - which operate best all on or all off, so if a company has more blast furnaces, it has greater granularity in terms of operating efficiency
- NUE has great hedges in place for natural gas costs
- picks - NUE, RS, STLD, AKS

Barrons 4/23/2007

From 4/23/2007 Issue of Barrons

1. Oil Drillers should pay dividends vs buying back stock - low P/E due to cylical nature of business

- Transocean (RIG)
- GlobalSantaFe (GSF)
- Diamond Offshore (DO) - paid $4 special dividend 1/2007. partially owned by Loews
- Noble (NE)
- Ensco (ESV)
- Seadrill (SDRLF.pk) - norway; high P/E looking to acquire (NE or GSF likely targets per Geoff Kieburtz)

2. Chomping its way to profit
- JOYG vs BUCY (Bucyrus Int'l)
- beaten up due to coal price drop
- 40% revenue comes from surface mining
- 60% revenue comes from subsurface mining (coal?)
- also, after market service contracts
- coal producers have rebounded this year

Forbest Best Managed Companies (2006)

Forbes 01/09/2006

Categories

1. telecom services
2. transportation
3. utilities
4. conglomerates
5. constructions
6. consumer durables
7. diversified financials
8. drugs
9. food, drink, tobacco
10. food markets
11. health care equipment/services
12. hotels
13. household and personal products
14. insurance
15. materials
16. media
17. oil and gas
18. retailing
19. semi
20. software
21. banking
22. business services

Squeezing out more Income

Kiplingers (10/2006)

Closed end income funds

1. BGT - blackrock bank-loan fund (senior secured bank loans)
2. LBF - DWS global high income (emerging mkt debt)
3. PPR - ING - bank-loan fund (i.e. borrow at 5.5%, invest at 8.5%)
4. NUV - nuveen muni
5. NPT - nuveen muni

Kiplinger's Recommended Financial Blogs

Kiplingers (10/2006)

- The Buffett Blog
- Consumerism Commentary
- Controlled Greed
- Cramerwatch
- Dear Economist
- Footnoted.org
- Freakonomics
- Fund Alarm
- Kirk Report
- Mad Money Machine
- PFblogs
- Random Roger's Big Picture
- Seeking Alpha
- Stockblogs
- 10q Detective
- Thoughts from the Frontline

Tankers

Kiplinger's March 2006

Oceans of Opportunity

Aries Maritime (RAMS, $13) - 7 gasoline and fuel oil, 5 general cargo
- risk is lower rates

Arlington Tankers (ATB, $22) - high quality, low risk (sunoco, xom), low dividend
- low risk

Genco Shipping (GSTL, $17) - coal, steel
- risk is global interest rates (financed w/ floating debt tied to LIBOR)
- symbol now GNK

Seaspan (SSW, $20) - long term fixed contracts to haul Chinese goods

Teekay LNG (TGP, $30) - LNG

Fungus biological clock

Economist 02/17/2007

Fungus chemistry for telling time

Love thine enemy - endogenous retroviruses

Economist (09/16/2006)
- retrovirus (viral gene) plays keep role in the development of sheep embryo (related to how embryo attaches to womb)
- retrovirus uses RNA to "reproduce". this RNA is copied onto a host's DNA. if DNA belongs to a sperm/egg, the RNA is passed down to next generation (endogenous retrovirus)

Misc Index to Short Articles)

Barrons (03/19/2007)
- short primer on sub prime ecosystem

Barrons (03/26/2007)
- world's most respected CEOs

Barrons (04/02/2007)
- Walter Industries (WLT)
- coal (esp met coal) and gas producer

Barrons (04/09/2007)
- www.gainskeeper.com (for keeping track of capital gains. also creates automatic schedule D for importing into tax programs)


WSJ (04/16/2007)
- titans of steel (importance of pipes/tubing for oil drilling. large Indian companies buying others)

WSJ (04/10/2007)
- Apache article (recycling old oil fields - similar to XTO)

3 Tests for Arterial Health

WSJ - (04/17/2007)

3 tests for artery health (i.e. strokes, aneurysm, etc)

- carotid ultrasound (fatty plaque in neck artery)
- ankle - brachial (fatty plaque in legs)
- abdominal ultrasound (aortic aneurysm - AAA)

New 7 Sisters

LA Times (03/19/2007)

New 7 Sisters

- Saudi Aramco (25% of world reserves)
- Gazprom
- CNPC/Petro China
- NIOC (Iran)
- PDVSA (Venezuela)
- Petrobras - Good deep water expertise
- Petronas (Malaysia)

Barrons Interview w/ Sy Jacobs

Barrons (03/26/2007)

Picks -
NLY
ANH - mortgage REIT w/ ARM exposure (book value should increase)
ORGN
OPX - aggresive mortgage REIT w/ alt-A exposure. stock price punished. P/B = 0.5

Lady Windermere Coughing

LA Times article 03/26/2007

Health Section

1. Elderly ladies w/ persistent cough
2. X-ray reveals old and new infection in the middle section of lungs
3. Old infections possibly from childhood (no antiobiotics)
4. mycobacterial infection (mycobacterium avium intracullulare)
5. took three (3) antiobiotics over a period of 1.5 years
6. not cured, but reduced

Interest Rate Sites

The following web sites have good info on interest rates:

1. www.bankrate.com

2. www.money-rates.com

3. www.managingmoney.com
- includes related items such as legal forms for leases, personal finance, tax prep, etc

Dying Giant - Cantarell Field Oil

From 5 April 2007 WSJ, front page

1. World daily output of oil - 85 M bbl

2. 25% (~20M bbl) is pumped from 20 largest fields (Wood Mackenzie - Scottish oil consulting firm)

3. "Big field" is 500k bbl/da

4. 2 decades ago, 12 fields produced > 1M bbl/day. Now, 4 fields.

European Private Equity Examples

From 2 April 2007 WSJ, C1

Check out the following European Private Equity firms

1. 3i Group (England)- up 67% in past 2 years

2. Onex (Canada) - up 18%/yr since 1984

3. Wendel and Eurazeo (France)
- Wendel - double in past 2 years
- Eurazeo - 80% in past 2 years

Restaurants to Try

HealthyCA Foods -
- 4724 Lankershim, NoHo
- M-F 10 - 5 pm
- 818.505.1035

Pizza -
- Mulberry St Pizza - NY style by the slice
- Vito's - 814 N Vermont; 323.667.2723

Hole-in-the-Wall (Valley)
- Pita Kitchen
- QT's Chicago Dogs - 4344 Woodman
- Tony's Mexican Grill
- Nat's Early Bite
- Sushi Don - 4816 Laurel

Index of Recipes I've cut out of the paper

1. Hummus

2. Tomato-Olive Salad

3. Ribs (from MKE Journal)

4. Home made hamburgers

5. Ethiopian - beef stew, lentils, bread

6. Grilled Cilantro Chicken

7. Grilled Eggplant, Tomatoes and Zucchini

8. 4 recipes for Grilled Chicken -
- spice rubbed
- marinated
- buttered
- herbed

9. Fennel-spiced wild salmon

10. Guacamole

11. Middle Eastern Flat Breads (also baba ghanouj and hummus)

12. Union Hotel Fried Chicken

13. Zuni Cafe Roast Chicken

14. Roasted or Grilled Fillet of Beef w/ Black Pepper

15. Smoked BBQ (baby back ribs)

16. Manhattan Clam Chowder

17. Coq Au Vin

18. Roast Chicken Provencal

19. Various Black Bean Soups

20. List of Spices

21. List of Herbs

22. Veggie Indian Cuisine

23. Rice Delcio-so (Jasper's mom)

24. Super Bowl - buffalo wings, beer battered shrimp and ribs

25. Super Bowl - fried eggs, chicken wings, shrimp

26. Roasted tomatoes persillade

27. Thanksgiving - how to carve, stuffing

28. Brussel sprouts

29. Eggplant and Tomato Salade

30. Pie Crust

31. Bayou Cooking - red beans and rice, shrimp creole

32. Perfectly cooked steak

33. Best of Beef -
- burger
- grilled strip steak w/ hash browns
- bone-in rib eye
- braised short ribs
- adobo-rubbed beef tenderloin

34. Basque chicken w/ sweet peppers and tomatoes

35. Braised chicken legs w/ green olives

36. Home-made vinegar

37. Indian Grilled short ribs w/ celery root and apple slaw

38. Olive oil poached salmon with fresh horseradish

39. Hickory smoked and grilled hanger steak

40. Roasted Fall-Veggie Hash

41. Soups
- Butternut Squash Soup
- Cauliflower Soup
- Spicy Grain Soup

42. Super Crispy Chicken

43. Roasted Grape Tomatoes and Garlic in Olive Oil

44. Chicken Curry w/ Potatoes and Squash

45. Indian spiced String Beans

46. Red Wine Braised Lamb Shanks

47. Maple Glazed Root Veggies

48. Comfort food from a Rebel Chef
- Beef Chile w/ Beans
- Roasted Chicken w/ Garlic-Thyme Butter
- Smoky Meatloaf

49. Slow roasted balsamic turnips

50. Short Ribs the Long Way (WSJ)
- greenbeans
- cauliflower puree

51. LA Times Food (3/21/2007)
- One Fish, 5 Dishes
- Pan roasted
- Steamed
- Roasted stuffed w/ lemon/rosemary
- Braised
- Grilled w/ basil oil
- Gadgets for sharpening knves
- Stock
- Veal
- Chicken

52. Slow cooking (LA Times 04/18/2007)
- slow-poached shrimp
- slow-cooked salmon
- chipotle ribs

53. Honey-Fried chicken (WSJ 04/14/2007)

More Puts and Calls stuff for April 07

Sell Puts on the following:

- BNI
- CLF
- COP
- CX
- DWSN
- FTO
- HOC
- OXY (maybe)
- SUN
- SWN
- VLO
- XTO


Sell Calls on the following:
- PTEN (?)

Options Expiration (04/2007) - DOW puts and calls

Sell puts on the following
- AA
- BA
- DD
- HON
- HPQ (maybe)
- MCD
- MO
- T
- VZ
- XOM

Sell calls on the following:
- AIG
- AXP
- C (maybe)
- DIS (maybe)
- GE (maybe)
- JNJ
- GM
- HD
- MRK (maybe)
- MSFT (maybe)
- WMT

Southland BBQ Restaurants

AAA - Sept/October 2005

Valleys
- Pasadena - Robin's Wood Fire BBQ and Grill - 626.351.8885 (395 Rosemead)

909
- Upland - Buckboard BBQ and Grill - 909.608.7393

LA
- Venice - Baby Blues BBQ - 310.396.7675 (444 Lincoln Blvd)

Ventura
- Ventura - Cooke's Smokehouse - 805.652.1446 (1751 E Main St)

OC
- Cypress - Mike's BBQ - 714.799.6222

San Diego - North Park

Same area as the Breakfast Place (mama's?)

Ray at Night - jazz, poetry
Red Fox Steak House
Burlingame and Shirley Ann Place Historic Districts
Other stuff

Ethnic Food in LA

AAA Magazine - March/April 2006

Little Ethiopia (South of The Grove)
- Yedoro wat - stew of chicken, eggs, spices
- Restaurants
- Rosalinds
- Nyala
- Messob Ethiopian

Little India (605/91)

Little Italy (San Diego - West of Balboa Park and 5)

Olvera Street (downtown)

Secret California - Shasta

Sunset Magazine - 06/2006

Sights:
- Burney Falls (62 miles NE of Redding)
- Lassen Volcanic NP
- Lva Beds National Monument

Travel Recommendations - Blueberries and more

Sunset - 08/2006

BC Blueberries -

• Vancouver's Granville market starting in August (1 lb for $2-$3)
• Blue Valley Farms

Uncrowded National Parks -

• Black Canyon of the Gunnison
• Channel Islands
• North Cascades (Newhalem Creek campground)
• Redwood NP

Waterfalls to visit

• Santa Paula Canyon Falls (Punch Bowls) - swimming (Ventura/Ojai)
• Whiskeytown Falls - Shasta/Redding; Whiskeytown National Rec Area
  

Night Hiking

From LA Times (date unknown)

- Griffith Park - 7 pm T, W, Th
- Santa Monica Mountains - 7 pm T
- Topanga Canyon in Woodland Hills
- Palisades (Los Liones Dr and Sunset) - Parker Mesa Overlook (http://www.localhikes.com/Hikes/ParkerMesa_4472.asp)

- Others - Signal Hill, Irvine, Puente/Whittier

03/17/2007 Griffith Park Trip

Eugenia bought two tickets to check out the newly reopened Planetarium.

- Good article in LA Times 11/02/2006 Calendar Weekend Section on Griffith Park Observatory
- Next time, also check out www.laas.org for night star parties
- Check out Gottlieb Transit Corridor (calendar)
- Also, check out the composting organization at Griffith Park (4th Saturday of each month 10 AM to 12 PM))
- Schedule here:

http://www.lacity.org/san/solid_resources/recycling/composting/bin_sales_events.htm

01/13/2006 - Navellier Foreign Stocks

CIB - Bancolumbia
AMX - America Movil
GGB - Gerdau Steel (Brazil)
CX - Cemex
BBD - Banco Bradesero
SQM - Sociedad Quimica Y Minera
KB - Kookmin Bank

01/08/2006 Kiplinger Notes (con't)

11/2005 and 12/2005 Issues of Kiplingers

Funds
- Natural Resource Funds
- T Rowe Price New Era Fund (PRNEX)
- FUNDX (based on no-load fund-x)

Books
- Trade Like a Hedge Fund - James Altucher
- Trend Trading to Win
- The Undercover Economist (Tim Harford)

Website
- Leading Economic Indicators
- www.martincapital.com

Stocks

BNI, CSX, CP, Norfolk Southern, Union Pacific
Allscripts (competitive with Medrule?)
Saifun (11/12/2005 Economist) - Israeli Compact Flash Memory Company

Q: Are airlines coming back? Seem to be many articles on it

01/08/2006 Kiplinger Notes

10/2005 Issue

Funds

- FSCOX - Fido Int'l Small Cap Oppty (mainly developed markets)
- WBENZ - William Blair (BIEMX)
- Int'l growth is closed but emerging markets is new
- 40% asia, 30% Latin, 30% eastern europe/africa

emerging market debt
- PEMDX (Pimco Emerging Mkts Bonds)
- TGEIX (TCW Galileo Emerging)
- less volatility
- Closed end funds (ESD - saloman bros, EFL, more conservative)

stocks
- generic drugs - TEVA
- iron ore pellets - CLF

12/28/2005 - Selling puts

some thoughts on selling puts

if SP = strike
P = today's price

Figure of Merit

1a.

~ safety margin
~ yield
~ 1/duration
~[(sp-p)/p][premium/P][1/duration]

where are we on 1-yr high /low?

BP = buy price

???
BP = L + 0.25*(H-L)

12/28/2005 - Notes from "Little Book"

Little Book that Beats the Market

-Good companies (ROIC) at Good prices (E/EV)
- magicformulainvesting.com

- ROIC ~ EBIT/(WC + Fixed Assets)
- Yield ~ EBIT(Market Cap + Debt)

i.e. 2 companies, both with EBIT = $10. A has no debt, B has $50 debt. Price/share = $30.

Yield A = $10/$30 = 1/3
Yield B = $10/($30 + $50) = $1/8

Company A is "cheaper" even at the same "price" and same "earnings" because Company A did not require debt to achieve this.

12/27/2005 Notes

Money Market Resources
- www.ici.org
- www.imoneynet.com
- www.morningstar.com
- www.bankrate.com
- www.imoney.net

12/23/2005 Notes

Barrons (12/19/2005 Issue)

- Book: Little Book That Beats the Market

- Gazprom removing foreign ownership limits
- AIG - value play?; clean, new leadership, asia growth
- BA - growth in asia, dividend hike; should we sell puts on BA?

- Sandra Wood of Westwood Holdings Group
- visionary - early into aapl, reits, energy
- likes developing markets, transportation, infrastructure
- tankers - OSG and DHT
- engines - CMI and ETN

- MON and PFE
- raised dividend
- sell puts?
- COX-2 problem?

12/03/2005 Notes

Latin stocks
- BBD
- AMX
- GOL
- ERJ (Embraer)
- CX

Other stocks
- Dawson Geophysical (Gems 12/2005)
- Cheniere (LNG) - BW 10/17/2005
- McDermott (MDR) - BW 10/17/2005
- Hydril (HYDL) - Navellier
- Canadian National Railway - CNI

Research Article by Lundholm at Michigan about earnings surprises relative to stock movement

11/08/2005 - AAII Mtg

Centinela Hospital
Sundance Resources

Barnett Shale
Working Interest

Further notes:

11/30/2005

Five States - Jim Gibb

1. Rules of thumb -
- 1000 days production at 1 day's rate
- 1/2 of the total will be pumped by the end of Yr 2 or 3

2. Reserves - 0.7 - 1.2 BCF/well
- if 1 BCF at $8 gas, $2M investment
- $8M top line
- $6M after royalties, etc.
- $3.6M total on a $2M investment
- simple calculation might be 80% * NRI = take-home

11/23/2005

Costs
- Lease of $10/acre to $500/acre
- Royalty of 12.5-30%
- Total return of 2:1

12/01/2005

Some more notes from Brian Humphrey

Investment Notes from 11/01/2005

11/01/2005 (notebook)

Personal Finance Recommendations:

1. RCS - Pimco Strategic Global Gov't
2. ERF - Enerplus
3. Mid America Apartments (REIT)
4. Canadian Apartment Properties (CAR-U)
5. Tankers - Knightsbridge and General Maritime
6. Foreign Closed End Funds
a. BZF (Brazil)
b. CEE (Central Europe/Russia)

Misc Stocks
1. JOE - St Joe (also a major TAREX Holding)
2. BRO - Brown and Brown (insurance)
3. T. Rowe Price New Era Fund (PRNEX)
4. Coal stocks - CNX (Consol) and BTU (Peabody)

Kalesa Grill

- Filipino food recommended by Jocelyn
- Near corner of Woodman and Roscoe
- Across from a Kaiser
- hole in the wall

Online Universities

February 2007
WSJ

Universities are offering on-line video of popular lectures

MIT - Intro to Modeling and Simulation, Walter Lewin's Physics I, II, III (ocw.mit.edu)
Stanford - Modern Theoretical Physics
Berkeley

David Rattray - Zulu Wars expert

February 10, 2007
Economist

Author/Expert on Anglo-Zulu wars

Travel tips

January/February 2007
Business 2.0

www.flightstats.com - real time arrival/departure info
www.expertflier.com - $5/month for up-to-date inventory on first class seats

No Wrinkle Shirt

Jan/Feb 2007

Business 2.0

Brooks Brothers non-iron dress shirt - $74-$118

BAM

February 26, 2007 Barrons

Article on BAM (Brookfield Asset Management). Specialty finance ($28B), property ($26B), timber, power transmission, hydro power.

POT

November 6, 2006
Barrons

POT (133) - fertilizer (profit from corn and beef demand). Digs it out of ground (deposits from former seas evaporating - Saskatchewan)

Only company with spare capacity (75% of world's excess capacity), 17% of world's supply

Competitors - AGU, MOS
Ownership stakes in Arab Potash, SQM, Israel Chemicals and Sinofert

Expected earnings, $5.35, $6.90, $7.60 in 06, 07, 08

CEG - Barrons 03/09/2007

In the March 9 Barrons, there was an article on CEG (Constellation Energy). Could gain 20%

Leimert Park - BBQ and Soul Food

September/October 2005
AAA Magazine

Philips BBQ -
4307 Leimert Blvd
323.292.7613

M&M Soul Food -
4317 Degman Blvd
323.298.989