Barrons - 09/17/2007 notes - "A Beter Bet Than Apple"

Cover refers to Nokia (NOK) - better margins, products, cheaper, etc. But poor presence in the US contributes to it not being that loved

Health care stocks might be a good value. I already trade options on HNT, but here are a few other possibilities:

• CI - Cigna
• HUM - Humana
• MOH - Molina

Other stocks mentioned

• John Deere (DE, $147) - good corn crop
• Altria (MO, $70) - Int'l spin off sounds good. Will keep a 5%+ yield.

Put selling

• Goldman's people like selling puts on T, JNJ, PEP
• This week, big bull spread on MS - bought 6,000 Jan 65 calls and sold 12,000 Jan 70 calls
  

Speaking of Dividends:

• McDonalds (MCD, $55)
  
• boosted it to about 2.7%
• Paccar (PCAR, $90) -
  
• dividend has grown 20% annually over past 10 years
• stock has split 5x since 1997
• 13 special dividends since mid 1990 (last was $2/share in January)
• Zenith National Insurance (ZNT, $45)
  
• yielding 4.5%, 2nd boost this year
  
• 7th hike in 3.5 years

Where is Oil Headed? Contrarian say $45

• Mike Rothman ISI group
• What happens when hedge funds unwind all at once
• Demand growth is slower than we think
• Saudis can supply a lot more than we think (3 big fields coming online)
• Khursaniyah - Q3 2007
• Nuayyim - 2008
• Khurais - 2009
  

Notes from Labor Day 2007

Catching up on reading this week. Here are some things to check out

www.barrons400.com - Barrons came out w/ an index of 400 stocks they feel should do better than the market

Christopher Wood

• Writes a weekly letter called Greed & Fear, which might not be publically available, but can be found here: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/?s=christopher+wood
• Called the subprime alarm in 2005.
  
• Saw the Nasdaq crest in early 2000.
  
• Currently works for CLSA (HK brokerage).
• Has a booked called "Boom and Bust: The Rise and Fall of World Financial Markets".
  

Bond Insurers might be a good buy. WSJ. People extrapolate (lack of transparency) current bad news really far into the future (similar to RE stocks after Katrina)

• Assured Guaranty (AGO)
• MBIA (MBI)
• Ambac Financial Group (ABK)

Banco Compartamos -

• Mexican bank w/ an ROE of 50%;
  
• Specializes in Microfinance
• Listed on the Mexican exchange. Maybe can be bought on pink sheets.