4/23/06 - notes from 4/15 AAII mtg

- The Undercover Economist (book)
- Dohmen Research/Wellington Letter
- comments on inflation, gold hedge, liquidity?

Robert Hsu recommends
- ctrip.com (ctrp)
- focus media (fmcn)
- the9 (ncty)

Summit
- passive indices w/ rebalancing (dimensional funds)

7 Indicators that Move the Market
- yield curve - short end affected by fed; long end by inflation expectations
- two spreads
- 10 yr bond - fed funds
- AAA bonds - fed funds
- TED - treasury/euro spread
- TAG - treasury agency (i.e. fannie mae)

refining futures

[(2*gasoline + 1*heating oil) - 3*crude/42]* 1/3 = refiner margin/gallon "1-2-3"

margin > $0.04/gallon is good