Pasadena (Lexington Heights) home tour - 5/27/07

www.historichighlands.org

6 homes on highland (between michigan and holliston; new york and washington)

ODMAX substitutions

From 8/14/06 Barrons

Substitution for ODMAX

• Opp Real Asset
• Opp Int'l Small Company
• HRTVX

Barrons - 7/24/06

From 7/24/06 Barrons

- Is it time for Large Cap Value (?)

- Monitor the P/E of homebuilders and railroads

- Watch YHOO (20% drop in one day, to $25) in one month (on 5/21/07, price is about $30, so money could be made

- www.instantbull.com (grabs headlines from the following)
- finance.yahoo.com
- ragingbull.com
- siliconinvestor.com

- freemoneyfinance.com (blog)
- diamond hill long-short fund (20% 1 yr)
- insiderscore.com (subscription)

- EGN

• Utility that owns natural gas
• Free call option on Floyd shale (Alabama)
• Authorized 15% buyback
• (on 5/12/07, up 50% - doh!)

Kiplingers 8/06

7/15/06

From 8/06 Kiplingers

www.valueforum.com

Yield stocks

• ald - allied capital
• tma - thornburg mortgage
• tankers
• atb - arlington
• dht - double hull
• gstl - genco shipping
• ssw - seaspan
• oil/gas
• bpt (bp prodhoe - doh!)
• cvx - 3.5%

FPPTX - FPA capital - no losing yr since 1984 (?)

Coal -

• - btu
• - cnx (consol)
• - nrp (natural resource partners)

5/23/06 - Barrons

From 5/08/06 Barrons
- BVN - compania de minas buenaventura (peru au/ag)
- yzc - yanzhou coal

Gold and Barrons

5/6/06 notes

Gold hypothetical example
Today Tomorrow
1 oz gold $250 $500
1 sh CSCO $25 $50

csco in dollar terms - 50/25 = 2X
csco in gld terms - 1/10 oz -> 1/10 oz - 0% gain

if csco were flat, 1/10 oz -> 1/20 oz - 50% loss

if gold rises x%, stocks rise y%, stock appreciation = (1 + y%)/(1 + x%)

so nominal can go up while real goes down

From 4/24/06 Barrons

fxtrade.oanda.com - currency trading
xpresstrade.com - commodity trading

davis ny venture interview

malasia ETF

4/23/06 - notes from 4/15 AAII mtg

- The Undercover Economist (book)
- Dohmen Research/Wellington Letter
- comments on inflation, gold hedge, liquidity?

Robert Hsu recommends
- ctrip.com (ctrp)
- focus media (fmcn)
- the9 (ncty)

Summit
- passive indices w/ rebalancing (dimensional funds)

7 Indicators that Move the Market
- yield curve - short end affected by fed; long end by inflation expectations
- two spreads
- 10 yr bond - fed funds
- AAA bonds - fed funds
- TED - treasury/euro spread
- TAG - treasury agency (i.e. fannie mae)

refining futures

[(2*gasoline + 1*heating oil) - 3*crude/42]* 1/3 = refiner margin/gallon "1-2-3"

margin > $0.04/gallon is good

4/23/06 - notes from AAII subgroup mtg 4/1/06

- www.fidelity.com/runningbulls

- fed funds futures (can be found in barrons)
- smart money thinks probability of interest rate change
- example
- today is 8/3; fed mtg is 8/22
- today = 6.5%; probability of 6.75%?
- today, fed funds futures = 93.49 = 6.51%

- 22/31 * 6.5 + 9/31 * (6.75p + 6.5(1-p)) = 6.51
- therefore, p = 13.64%

- FT dxy-z = $ exchange rate
- vmfxx leads fed funds by a bit ($FEDD)
- pot'l US vs Int'l System based on USD
- junk - 10 yr bond; if spread <> 5%, get into junk

4/9/06 - review of 3/27/06 Barrons

Barrons - 3/27/06

Education stocks - ceco, apol, coco, laur

art smith on energy - ccon, cop, xom, cvx;

refiners - hoc, fto, vlo

best-buy options (?) something about earnings and price drift?

www. quantitativeinvestment.com (haugen) - multifactor models; use of deciles of stocks

4/2/06 - April 2006 Kiplingers

Mutual funds -
- HFCGX - Hennessy cornerstone growth (I & II)
- HENLX
- HFTFX (focus 30)

hsbcdirect.com

chaserewards plus visa (no cap on refunds)

check out AMT clauses

4/2/06 AAII Mtg - Dave Wright Talk Recap

recommended funds
- sgiix - first eagle global value
- nhmax - nuveen high yld munis
- sitex - sei emerging mkt bond
- icdax - ivy cundhill global value
- tbgvx
- rpibx - t rowe int'l bond
- vwinx - vanguard wellesley income
- andex - old mutual analytic - defensive equity
- cnzlx - australia/NZ
- pempx - potomac emerging mkts equity
- bmpix - profunds mat'l
- macsx - matthews asian convertible securities

Jan 03 barrons - read grantham and felix zuloff

3/30/06 Book Review - Beyond the Random Walk

By Singal

1. January Effect
- losers sold in Dec, rise in Jan
- winners are not sold in Dec (little selling pressure)
- how to use - sell losers in Jan; or buy winners in dec, not January (Dec 1 or 5 trading days
before Dec 31)

2. Weekend Effect
- stocks rise on friday, drop on monday (short covering?)

3. Short Term Price Drift
- If Price rises on high volume and good announcement (news), price will drift up for 1 month

4. Momentum in Industry Portfolios (rotational trading)
- holding period of 6-12 months
- lookback period of 5, 15, 25 weeks
- holding period of 1, 5 weeks
- 5 week lookback, 1 week holding is best (test this in trade)

5. Mispricing of mutual funds
- not possible (?) w/ erfs and trading restrictions

6. trading by insiders
- need to make rules i.e.
- 6 month window
- sale/purchase (S/P) ratio - exclude outsiders; > 500k shares, no planned sales
- unique insiders
- compare S/P to SI/PI
- buy if no selling, certain ratios met

7. changes to s&p 500
- added firms go up
- dropped firms go down
- buy on announcement; short on effective date

8. merger arb
- buy target; short acquirer

9. Int'l investing and home country bias
- buy for diversification

10. bias in currency forward rates
- short currencies w/ low int rates
- long currencies w/ high int rates

More MoMo

1. buy stocks that have done best over the past 3-12 months and hold 3-12 months
2. 3-5 years, trends reverse
3. for 1 yr after a stock split, abnormal returns

3/23/06 - additional notes from reading

From 3/6/06 Barrons

- Building infrastructure for energy plays
- flr, fwlt, jec, cbi, sgr

- Website recs
1. etf-connect.com
2. etfdigest.com
3. etftrends.com
4. etf-reader.com
5. assetallocator.blogspot.com
6. pfblogs.org - catalog of blogs
7. happycapitalist.blogspot.com

3/23/06 Notes - 3/18/06 AAII mtg

1. D. Gimpel
- investorhome.com
- 7 indicators that move the market (kasriel & schap)
- predicting the markets of tomorrow (o'shaughnessy

2. theglobeandmail.com - financial section on oil/gas trusts

3. buybacks - buybackletter.com
- ikenberry and lakonjshok paper - "market underreaction to open market share repurchases"

4. fari hamzei
- dollar weighted put/call ratio
- ( sum of cost/put * # puts)/(sum of cost/call * # calls)
- T+3 day effect due to settling requirements

3/23/06 Notes - websites to check out

1. martincapital.com
2. investorsinsight.com
3. randomroger.blogspot.com
4. inventingmoney.blogspot.com
5. seekingalpha.com/article/3033
6. kiplinger.com/tools/stockfinder
7. fundalarm.com
8. investingingbonds.com
9. insure.com, accuquote.com, insweb.com
10. marketcenter.com
11. advfn.com - global quotes
12. ft.com
13. adr.com
14. morningstar.com/centers/global.html
15. footnoted.org

3/20/06 notes - ADRs

Chile -
1. SAN - bank
2. EOC - utility
3. SQM - mining

Columbia -
1. CIB - bank

Brazil -
1. GOL
2. BBD
3. PBR
4. EMB
5. RIO

Russia -
1. Gazprom
2. Lukoil
3. Norilsk (NILSY)

3/7/2006 Notes - O'Shaughnessy book

O'Shaughnessy

1. Market leaders
- large stocks
- market cap > avg
- shares outstanding > avg
- cash flow > avg
- sales > 1.5 * avg stock

2. all stocks value
- p/b < 1.5
- div yld > avg
- p/e < avg
- buy the 50 stocks w/ the lowest price/CF

3. cornerstone growth
- market cap > $200M
- P/S < 1.5
- earnings today > earnings a year ago
- buy 50 w/ greatest price appreciation in past year
- 3 month price appreciation > avg
- 6 month price appreciation > avg

2/6/06 Notes

1/3/06 Barrons
Rubber shortage? (matt simmons, simmons and co); Peak oil?

12/26/06 Barrons
Gold -
- NEM - newmont mining
- GG - gold corp
- FCX - freeport
- rgld - royalgold

- osk - oshkosh truck
- xec - jon wolff, credit suisse

- joyg for mining tools
- tsu - brazil cell phone
- cdis - caldive
- bbd = itu (?) brazillians banks

Index of Recipes I've cut out of the paper (II)

1. Several grilled salmon recipes (SO paper) - cedar plank, pesto planked, ginger soy, cajun, wasabi

2. Grilled shrimp in ginger/lime marinade

3. Eggplant Imam Bayildi (onion, tomato, etc)

WSJ 5/19/07 - Int'l Brokers

To invest directly in foreign markets, see if you can open an account w/ a local broker
- Boom Securities in HK gives Ameicans access to every major market in Asia
- check out each country's stock exchange website first

Barrons 5/14/07 - Interview w/ Michelle Applebaum

Steel analyst
- foreign steel is now being used more in foreign countries (i.e. larger share of domestic pie is going to domestics)
- NUE and STLD contain costs well
- consolidation is good for blast furnace operation - which operate best all on or all off, so if a company has more blast furnaces, it has greater granularity in terms of operating efficiency
- NUE has great hedges in place for natural gas costs
- picks - NUE, RS, STLD, AKS